CITBA Research Clusters Economic Modelling

Economic Modelling

An economic model is a theoretical construct and a simplified framework designed to describe, investigate, and predict complex economic processes. Inherently, economic modelling is a practice of articulation of theoretical assumptions, and the use of real data to simulate and forecast potential consequences. Subsequently, economic models, when designed properly, provide a great decision-making and policy making tool.

Economic models, are either deterministic or probabilistic/stochastic. Deterministic models assume certainty, require information on cause-and-effect, and are meant to yield a single solution. Probabilistic/ stochastic models include elements of randomness, and require measurement constructions under uncertain assumptions. Given that economic systems are complex and endogenous (change originates from within the system), the economic models should, where possible, be probabilistic/stochastic. Moreover, heterogeneous economic processes and the endogeneity of variables in full systems create contemporaneous feedback loops that may become permanent features of the economic systems (such as non-marginal impulses of climate change effects), and so it is essential that economic models are set up in a way that characterise these features not only in the short-run but also in the long-run.

Here, at CITBA, we have expertise in building probabilistic/stochastic, systematic, and dynamic economic models that posit structural parameters and are capable of investigating contemporaneous relationships between economic, social, and environmental variables using systems of equations. Our research attitude is holistic and inspired by issues of pertinent to climate change, natural disasters, public health, urban economics, and sustainability at micro and macro scales. We have capabilities and skills to create leading economic models for SMEs, industries, and governments to help them with their future planning. We have expertise to deal with data that are either discrete and equally spaced time intervals, or come from different sections at a single point in time. Our economic analysis uses econometric methods and estimation techniques, such as time series analysis, regression analysis, Structural Vector Auto-Regressions, Vector Error Correction models, etc.

For further information on the Economic Modelling research being conducted by CITBA please contact A/prof Taha Chaiechi

Economic Effects of Natural Disasters by Taha Chaiechi.jpgElsevier.
Publication October 2020

The edited volume entitled “Economic Effects of Natural Disasters: Theoretical Foundations, Methods, and Tools” explores the mechanism through which natural disasters affect sources of economic growth and development.  Using theoretical econometrics and real-world data and drawing on advances in climate change economics, it shows scholars and researchers how to use various research methods and techniques to investigate and respond to natural disasters.  No other book presents empirical frameworks for the evaluation of the quality of macroeconomic research practice with a focus on climate change and natural disasters.  Because many of these subjects are so large that different regions of the world use significantly different approaches to them, Economic Effects of Natural Disasters strives to present a comprehensive global portrait of economic applications and evidence.

What does it take to build a resilient economy? From natural disasters to pandemics, economies and the associated businesses, industries, occupations, and communities can be vulnerable to a range of external risks. The Journal of Resilient Economies (JRE), is a Platinum Open Access journal, with a multidisciplinary focus to further advance the important concept of resilience. JRE does not charge either the readers or the authors. This ensures all accepted articles will be immediately and permanently available to readers free of charge.

The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and economic resilience are intertwined. Accordingly, SDGs are an integral part of JRE policy and focus. As part of the commitment to this global agenda, JRE is committed to making significant contributions to the literature around the SDGs and their connections to resilience.

Stock-Flow-Consistent (SFC) Workshop is an advanced training workshop that will build a foundation for understanding stock-flow models and policy implementation using standard economic models. The workshop is designed to introduce participants to basic tools of theory building. Practical examples of SFC models from Monetary Economics by W. Godley and M. Lavoie (2007) will be used to enable participants to work with the actual SFC models. The workshop will provide focused discussions around key national-level public and monetary policy elements.

This workshop consists of 3 parts in total and can be completed in two days.

  • History of Stock-Flow-Consistent Macroeconomic Modelling
  • The Balance Sheet Approach to Endogenous Money
  • Accounts for a simple (discrete-time) SFC Model

First workshop of this series was held 29-30 October 2022

This one-day introductory workshop is designed for policymakers, health professionals, managers and researchers in the health field. The workshop aims at providing participants with an understanding of how to use CBA as one economic evaluation tool to compare the costs and benefits of alternative interventions to aid decision-making processes.

The  CBA workshop series is planned to be held from April 2023 onward